The collaborative robot market is entering a phase of sustained but uneven growth. The latest Collaborative Robots – 2026 report points to a market that is maturing in pricing, while remaining volatile in regional and application demand.

Collaborative robot shipments reached nearly 58,000 units in 2025, growing 14.5 per cent over the previous year. Shipments are forecast to more than double over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030.

Growth, however, is not expected to follow a smooth upward trajectory. The report identifies two cyclical peaks during the forecast period. Growth is predicted to slow slightly in 2026 before accelerating to a higher level in 2027, sustaining strong momentum through 2028, easing again in 2029, and reaching another peak in 2030.

This pattern reflects industry investment cycles, technological iteration, and changes in downstream demand. The forecast growth rate from 2025 to 2030 is significantly higher than the average recorded between 2019 and 2024, driven by an accelerated market penetration phase.

Revenue growth for collaborative robots is also expected to remain strong, but will trail shipment growth due to a gradual decline in average selling prices (ASP). Global collaborative robot revenue is projected to increase from $1.2 billion in 2025 to $2.4 billion in 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of approximately 14.7 per cent.

Unlike the sharp price erosion seen in recent years, particularly during the intense price wars from 2021 to 2024, ASP declines from 2025 onward are expected to be more moderate.

Three structural factors explain this moderation. First, price reductions from Chinese vendors are slowing as the intense domestic price war stabilises and suppliers shift focus from volume to value. Second, rising manufacturing costs in Europe and the United States, including labour, energy, and regulatory compliance, are putting a floor under pricing. Third, the product mix is gradually shifting towards higher-payload models of 15 kg and above, which command premium prices and help offset downward pressure from entry-level segments.

As a result, while ASP continues to decline, the pace is expected to be noticeably gentler than in the immediate post-pandemic years.

The most pronounced structural change in the collaborative robot market is China’s steady rise as the global leader in shipment volume. China’s share of worldwide unit shipments has grown substantially over the past few years, from less than one third in 2018 to more than half by 2025.

China’s year-on-year growth rates have consistently outpaced other major regions, frequently exceeding 20 per cent. The country is projected to account for nearly two thirds of the global market by 2030.

In contrast, both the Americas and EMEA are experiencing structural share erosion. The Americas’ share of the collaborative robots market has declined significantly since 2018 and is expected to fall further by 2030. EMEA’s decline has been even sharper, dropping from a dominant position in 2018 to a much smaller share in 2025, with further contraction ahead.

While both regions are forecast to see modest growth acceleration from 2026 onward, this recovery is not sufficient to regain lost market share. Key constraints include higher manufacturing costs and slower adoption among small and medium-sized enterprises.

India remains a small but fast-growing niche market. Its share stood at only 1.9 per cent in 2025 and is projected to reach 2.3 per cent by 2030. However, India’s year-on-year forecast growth rates are consistently above 20 per cent from 2026 onward, indicating future potential from a very low base.

Material handling and assembly remain the two largest revenue-generating applications for collaborative robots. In 2025, these two segments together accounted for nearly half of the global market, with material handling contributing the larger share.

Welding, despite having a smaller revenue footprint, recorded the strongest growth among all applications, driven by the cyclical recovery in the automotive and machinery sectors.

Testing and inspection-related applications also showed strong momentum, with quality inspection, lab analysis, and sorting posting solid growth. These trends highlight the continued integration of collaborative robots with machine vision and advanced sensing technologies across inspection-intensive tasks.

Between 2025 and 2030, the global collaborative robot market is expected to see a doubling of shipment volumes, sustained revenue expansion, and a moderating decline in average selling prices, rather than a sharp drop.

Market participants should prioritise growing demand for high-payload models, address cost pressures in Western manufacturing regions, and adapt to the revised pricing strategies of Chinese suppliers.

Humanoid robots represent an emerging downstream application and are likely to provide additional incremental headroom in the medium to long term. However, within the current forecast horizon, they will remain a modest segment of the overall market.